10 Years of the Paris Agreement: Disparities in National Responsibility Threaten Climate Goal

A decade after nearly all nations in the world negotiated the landmark Paris Agreement, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C is being critically undermined – not just by rising emissions, but by profound disparities in national responsibility.

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The Paris Agreement was adopted by 195 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on December 12 in 2015. As a formal international pact, it became active in November 2016. Its central goal is to keep the rise in worldwide temperatures significantly under 2C while striving to limit them to 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels.

The “carbon inequality” phenomenon is well illustrated in a 2025 Oxfam report, which reveals that the average daily emissions of the world’s richest 0.1% now surpass the total annual emissions of the poorest 50%. If everyone lived like these top emitters, the planet’s carbon budget would be exhausted in just three weeks.

This inequality is mirrored at the national level. Data from this year’s Global Carbon Budget reveals a world split between high-emitting economies and nations that, while historically responsible for very little pollution, are now increasing their per capita emissions at an alarming pace.

The following analysis, based on 2025 Global Carbon Budget dataset, charts the top per capita emitters, those with the fastest-growing footprint since 2015, and the correlation between national wealth and carbon intensity.

1. Per capita leaders: fossil-fuel economies dominate

The ranking of nations’ per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2024 was dominated by those with resource-intensive economic models. Topping the list is Qatar, with per capita emission of 41.3 tonnes – a footprint largely fuelled by its vast liquefied natural gas industry and energy-intensive infrastructure.

The top-20 is dominated by major fossil-fuel producers, particularly in the Gulf region. Kuwait (26.2 t), Bahrain (23.9 t), and Saudi Arabia (19.8 t) feature prominently, alongside other energy-exporting states like Brunei (23.1 t) and Trinidad and Tobago (21.8 t). Western developed nations like the US (14.2 t), Australia (14.5 t), and Canada (13.4 t) also figure in the list.

Data shows that the highest per capita emissions are overwhelmingly concentrated in countries whose wealth is intrinsically linked to fossil fuel extraction and export. This dependency creates a challenge: as scientists call for phasing out fossil fuels, these nations’s economies are under threat. Consequently, their willingness, ability and speed of economic transformation have become key variables determining the extent of global climate action.

2. Since the Paris Agreement, the rise in emissions has shifted to developing economies

While attention is often focused on the largest absolute emitters, examining growth rates since the Paris Agreement’s baseline year (2015) reveals a different trend. The list of nations with the fastest-growing per capita emissions is dominated by developing and emerging economies.

Leading this ranking is Comoros, East Africa with a staggering 157.6% increase in per capita emissions from 2015 to 2024. It is followed closely by three Asian nations – Nepal (155.2%), Cambodia (136.8%), Laos (132.6%) – and South America’s Guyana (109.7%), which is experiencing rapid economic transformation due to new oil discoveries.

This trend signals a critical juncture. While several developing nations are now accelerating their development, a lack of access to clean technology and sustainable investment means they risk locking in carbon-intensive systems. Their high percentage growth underscores the necessity of global climate finance to support a low-carbon development leap.

3. The inescapable correlation: wealth means larger carbon footprint

The global geographic pattern of emissions in 2024 presents a clear and direct correlation with national income. Grouping available data from over 100 countries by the World Bank income classifications reveals a divide: high-income countries have an average per capita carbon footprint of 5.81 tonnes. Meanwhile, upper-middle-income countries’ footprint drops sharply to 1.86 tonnes, while that of lower-middle-income countries is as little as 0.27 tonnes – over twenty times less than the high-income group average.

This disparity illustrates the core of the climate equity dilemma: high-income nations, with the greatest historical responsibility and financial capacity to lead the transition, maintain the largest per capita footprints. Meanwhile, lower-income nations, which have contributed least to the problem, face the dual burdens of poverty and escalating climate impacts, all while their legitimate development aspirations push emissions upward from a low base.

The Road Ahead

The data is clear: achieving the global warming goal laid out in the Paris Agreement is impossible unless we address this dual reality of extreme per capita emissions in wealthy and resource-rich states, and the urgent need to support sustainable, low-carbon pathways for the developing world.

Featured image: UN Climate Change/Kiara Worth via Flickr.