Grasslands Could Shrink by Half As Climate Change Intensifies, Study Warns

Grasslands supporting over one billion grazing animals could shrink by 36–50% by the end of the century due to climate change, threatening global food systems. Low-income countries, particularly in Africa, will be hardest hit, jeopardizing food security, livelihoods, and the global livestock industry.

—

By the end of the century, grasslands that currently support 1.5 billion cows, sheep, and goats around the world will contract by anywhere between 36–50% due to the impacts of climate change, a new analysis has found.

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which conducted the study, said the impacts of climate change on grasslands in Africa are particularly worrying. Because African climate conditions are already almost at the extremes of what grasslands can bear, if global emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sources are reduced drastically, African grasslands may contract by only 16%. A “business as usual” scenario, where emissions continue to rise, may lead to losses of up to 65%. 

“Climate change will shift and significantly contract these spaces globally, leaving fewer spaces for animals to graze. Importantly, much of these changes will be felt in countries that already experience hunger, economic and political instability, and higher levels of gender inequity,” the study’s lead author Chaohui Li said in a press release.

Animal husbandry is both threatened by, and a cause of, climate change. According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization, meat and dairy account for around 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the second EAT-Lancet Report, published in late 2025, found that food is the single largest cause of planetary boundary transgressions, contributing to five of the six breached boundaries.

The study, published earlier this month, is based on the concept of a “safe climatic space” framework – a range of temperature and weather conditions in which grasslands suitable for grazing can thrive. The safe climatic space for grazing areas is designated as temperatures from -3 to 29C, rainfall between 50–2,627 millimeters per year, humidity from 39% to 67%, and wind speeds between 1 and 6 meters per second. 

Researchers project “a net decline of 36 to 50% of areas in climate suitability for grazing by 2100, accompanied by inter- and intracontinental shift of grazing suitability.” From 51% to 81% of these impacted populations reside in countries with low income, serious hunger, severe gender inequality, and high political fragility. The study predicts that “future climate change will threaten grazing suitability across large portions of Earth, endangering the livelihoods of numerous communities and potentially triggering widespread socioeconomic consequences.”

While some grazing areas will shift southwards from the Ethiopian highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin, and the Congo Basin, coastal grazing areas will have nowhere left to move. “This shift away from what we’re identifying as the safe climatic space really challenges the efficacy of adaptation strategies that have been used in places such as Africa in times of hardship, such as switching species or migrating herds. The changes are just too big for that,” Prajal Pradhan, Assistant Professor at the University of Groningen, a PIK researcher and a co-author of the study, said in a statement.

For Pradhan and his team, the findings are proof that climate change will aggravate existing inequalities and risk destabilizing global food production systems and the communities that depend on them.