Poor Countries Face 10 Times More Heat-Related Deaths than Wealthy Nations by 2050, Report Warns

Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab said future temperature-related mortality will ultimately depend both on the direct impacts of a warming climate and on the investments in climate adaptation measures, including air conditioning and cooling centers.

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Poorer nations will see a far higher deathtoll from extreme heat than rich nations as human-caused climate change continues to raise temperatures globally, a new report has warned.

Heatwaves are the deadliest type of extreme weather. Every year between 2000-2019, approximately 489,000 people died from extreme heat around the world. 45% of these casualties happened in Asia, the world’s most disaster-hit region from weather and climate hazards; 36% were in Europe, the world’s fastest-warming continent. Here, heat-related mortality has increased by around 30% in the past two decades. But a new paper published Monday found that low-income countries will suffer the most.

Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab estimate that 10 times more people are projected to die each year in lower-income countries (about 391,000 people) than in higher-income countries (about 39,000 people) due to shifting temperatures. This is because lower-income countries are less positioned than developed countries to confront the growing threats posed by climate change.

By mid-century, heat-related deaths could see increases of 60 or more deaths a year per 100,000 people in countries in Africa’s Sahel region like Niger and Burkina Faso – a rate higher than the current one for malaria in the continent. Southeastern Bolivia may see an increase in heat-related deaths of 30 people per 100,000 – equaling the death rate from diabetes. And in Pakistan, mortality is projected to increase by 51 deaths per 100,000 people, comparable to the loss of life due to tuberculosis and stroke in the country today.

Hotter regions like Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia are projected to see more deaths, according to the study. Differences will also be stark within countries with highly-varied climates such as the US and Bolivia. Meanwhile, some cold climates like Alaska, Canada, and Greenland will see a drop in heat-related deaths.

The findings of the report, itself not peer reviewed, are based on previous Climate Impact Lab peer-reviewed projections of mortality risk due to future temperature increases caused by climate change. Estimates suggest that a single hot day – when the average temperature surpasses 35C (95F) – increases mortality rates by four deaths per 1 million people.

“This report uncovers one of climate change’s cruelest ironies—it is projected to kill millions of people in the countries that have generally done the least to cause it,” said Michael Greenstone, Co-Founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth and Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago.

The paper comes as the UN this week suggested that the Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in recorded history as gobal warming accelerates.

Targeted Adaptation Measures Will Save Lives

Researchers said future temperature-related mortality will ultimately depend both on the direct impacts of a warming climate and on the investments in climate adaptation measures, including air conditioning and cooling centers. “[W]e’ve identified the regions around the world where climate adaptation investments can save the most lives,” said Greenstone.

The findings can be particularly helpful for countries that have limited resources to invest in adaptation. In the case of Bolivia, for example, adaptation measures are needed in lowlands, while the cooler, mountainous regions are less threatened by rising temperatures.

“Just as a journey requires a map, effective climate adaptation depends on knowing where action is most needed and which investments will have the greatest impact,” Greenstone said. “We’re providing that roadmap by pinpointing climate risks and the places where adaptation investments can deliver the biggest benefits.”

Featured image: Kyle Lam/hongkongfp.com