The World Meteorological Organization says there is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

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The Earth is on track to keep warming at or near record levels in the five years as chances of keeping global temperatures below the Paris Agreement 1.5C goal fade.

The latest edition of an annual report on the state of the climate by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts global yearly mean near-surface temperatures to be between 1.3C and 1.9C higher than the average for the 1850-1900 period, or pre-industrial period, between now and 2030. The global mean near-surface temperature refers to the combined average of air temperatures near the Earth’s surface and sea-surface temperatures.

The UN agency also said there is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

While this does not signal a permanent breach of the critical limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected.

Beyond 1.5C of global warming, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet, such as rising sea levels, more intense heatwaves, stronger storms, and disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity.

The report, wihch was produced by the UK’s Met Office, also said there is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will eclipse modern records to become the hottest year in history. Currently, 2024 holds the top spot, while the entire past decade accounts for all ten of the warmest years ever recorded.

The return of El Niño conditions this summer is increasing the chances that 2027 will be the next record-breaking year, scientists have said.

The global climatic phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years on average, is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. When this happens, the east-to-west trade winds die, keeping warmer than the normal air in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific, which temporarily raises global average temperatures. When combined with long-term human-caused climate change, these weather patterns frequently push global temperatures to record-breaking highs.

The powerful shifts in Pacific winds and water temperatures can also transform global weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of severe droughts in places like Australia and Southeast Asia and heavy floods in parts of the US and East Africa. 

Featured image: Kyle Lam/hongkongfp.com