Current National Climate Pledges Fall Far Short of What Is Needed to Limit Warming to 1.5C, Report Shows

Limiting global warming to 1.5C will require a reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. We are currently on track to slash them by 17% by 2035.

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Current emissions reduction pledges will slash emissions by 17% below 2019 levels by 2035, according to a new report. But the world remains well off course to keeping global warming below the critical 1.5C threshold leaders committed to by signing the Paris Agreement a decade ago.

Published Wednesday by the UN climate change arm, the latest Synthesis Report on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) looks at current climate commitments and progress toward the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. NDCs are national climate plans that each signatory to the agreement must prepare and update every five years, forming the foundation of the world’s collective efforts to tackle climate change.

More than 130 countries missed a September deadline to submit the latest round of NDCs, including some of the world’s largest emitters like the European Union, Iran, South Africa and China. Some of them have pledged to do so before next month’s COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil.

The new Synthesis Report is based on 64 new NDCs submitted between January 2024 and September 2025. Collectively, they represent just one-third of global emissions, and put the world on track to slash emissions by 17% below 2019 levels by 2035. Scientists say that staying within a 1.5C warming limit will require a reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, peaking no later than 2025.

“This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet,” said Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director, World Resources Institute.

Brazil, Australia, Japan and the UK were among the countries whose climate pledges were included in the report. The US also submitted a plan under former president Joe Biden. But it is unlikely that the current administration will implement it, with Trump administration officials now likely to sit out next month’s summit.

“[H]umanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said on Tuesday. “We have a serious need for more speed.”

Meanwhile, COP30 CEO Ana Toni called on countries to submit their updated NDCs ahead of the summit. “This will be critical for making COP30 the stage of a decisive moment in the history of multilateralism,” she said.

Progress on Adaptation, Gender

The report highlights progress on integrating adaptation, gender equality, and social inclusion into climate planning.

In particular, it found that 73% of the national plans submitted to the UN now include adaptation components. While adaptation finance has increased in recent years, it still represents less than 10% of global climate investments. Most of these investments go instead to mitigation initiatives, such as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are warming up our planet.

89% of plans also include gender-responsive measures recognizing the differing impacts of climate change on different genders and promoting gender equality.

Gender is a high-priority item on the COP30 agenda, with delegates expected to discuss a new Gender Action Plan. Priority areas for the plan include capacity building, knowledge management and communication, gender balance, participation and women’s leadership, coherence, gender-responsive implementation and means of implementation, and monitoring and reporting. In particular, the plan is expected to address advancing access to finance and gender – including funding for the plan itself – and closing the gap in gender-specific climate data. 

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