Meanwhile, the US agency forecast a below-average season in the Atlantic basin as El Niño typically suppresses hurricane development there.

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The central and eastern Pacific is likely to see above-average hurricane activity this year owing to the development of El Niño conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week.

The US agency released its Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific hurricane season outlooks on Thursday, predicting a 55% chance of below-average hurricane activity in the former and a 70% chance of above-average activity in the latter.

In March, weather forecasters, including NOAA, predicted a high chance of an El Niño event developing later this year. The global climatic phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years on average, is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. When this happens, the east-to-west trade winds die, keeping warmer than the normal air in the eastern and central parts of the tropical Pacific.

The powerful shifts in Pacific winds and water temperatures can transform global weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of severe droughts in places like Australia and Southeast Asia and heavy floods in parts of the US and East Africa. 

They also influence the formation of hurricanes, which are fueled and made more destructive by higher sea surface temperatures. Sea surface temperatures are on the rise globally as El Niño looms. Last month, they neared record levels in the Pacific and the extra-polar oceans.

In the eastern and central Pacific, strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with "dramatically elevated levels" of hurricane activity, NOAA said. In the Atlantic basin, meanwhile, El Niño typically suppresses hurricane development.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.

El Niño conditions also typically boost hurricane in the northwestern Pacific – known as typhoons in this part of the world. Typhoons take longer tracks over water during El Niño years, according to Yale Climate Connections. This is because warmer ocean waters are displaced toward the Central Pacific, causing tropical storms to form much farther to the east than usual. This elongated path provides more time for the storms to absorb heat and moisture, drastically increasing their odds of developing into major, catastrophic storms.

The northwestern Pacific lacks a defined typhoon season as typhoons can occur throughout the year, although they tend to peak between September and November.

Featured image: NOAA Satellites/Flickr.

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