Without the Paris Agreement, which mandates its signatories to submit climate plans every five years, we would be looking at an increase of emissions between 20-48% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
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An updated report on countries’ climate pledges revealed that the yearly amount of planet-warming gases added to the atmosphere could decrease 12% by 2035 from 2019 levels.
The revised figure is slightly higher than the one presented in an analysis last month, as it takes into account climate pledges submitted since the cutoff for the previous analysis.
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Opinion
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Pre-COP30
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- UN Climate Chief Urges Countries to Step Up Climate Action, Finance Ahead of COP30
- COP30 Host Brazil Calls For Bold National Emissions Reduction Plans Ahead of September Deadline
- COP30 Presidency Calls For Initiatives to Promote Information Integrity Amid Rampant Climate Disinformation
- Local Leaders to Tackle Climate Issues in Brazil Prior to COP30
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The new report, unveiled Monday by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), takes into account 86 climate plans submitted by 113 Parties between January 1, 2024 and November 9, 2025. Together, these plans – also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – put us on track to cut emissions by 12% in the next 10 years.
Without the Paris Agreement, we would be looking at an increase of emissions between 20-48% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, the report added.
Signatories to the Paris Agreement are required to periodically submit NDCs to the UNFCCC. They detail mitigation and adaptation goals, and form the foundation of the world’s collective efforts to tackle climate change.
NDCs must be updated every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition and taking into account each country’s capacity.
“The Paris Agreement is delivering real progress,” UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell told delegates in Belém, Brazil, on the first day of the UN COP30 climate summit.
“That’s a big deal,” said Stiell. “We are now bending the curve of planet heating emissions downwards – for the very first time.”
Featured image: UN Climate Change/Kiara Worth via Flickr.
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