As El Niño threatens harvests worldwide, investing in diversified farming and restoring degraded land makes economic sense, protecting both farmers’ livelihoods and improving food security.
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By Kaveh Zahedi
A farm can produce a bumper harvest one year and lose everything to drought or floods the next. Salvadoran farmer Nery Osorio knows that danger well. On his one-hectare hillside farm in El Salvador’s drought-prone Dry Corridor, he once grew only maize and beans. When those crops failed, he recalls, “we lost everything.”
Today, he grows maize alongside beans, cassava, vegetables and fruit trees. He also raises cows and goats, selling milk for additional income. A failed maize harvest would still hurt, but his other crops and milk sales give his family something to fall back on.
His experience suggests that, in a hotter, less predictable world, agricultural success should be judged by what a farm can withstand as much as by what it produces.
In 2025, 87.5 million people faced acute food insecurity in countries where weather extremes were the primary driver of food crises, nearly three times the reported number in 2018. Now, an El Niño that the World Meteorological Organization warns could be unprecedented in strength is disrupting rainfall, bringing drought to some regions and floods to others, against the backdrop of a warming climate. It offers a preview of the volatility farmers must prepare for as temperatures rise.
In Honduras, El Niño-related drought has already damaged maize harvests among small-scale farmers. In South and Southeast Asia, rice crops are suffering and India’s sugarcane harvest is at risk, while below-average rainfall linked to the naturally recurring climate pattern threatens southern Africa’s next maize-growing season.
Diversity is one of farmers’ strongest defenses against these extremes. Different crops and varieties withstand different conditions; trees provide shade, protect soils and supply fruit or fodder; and livestock offer another source of food and income. Together, they reduce dependence on any single harvest, helping keep food on the table when extreme weather strikes.
Osorio transformed his farm with help from FAO’s Green Climate Fund-backed RECLIMA program, which has helped more than 50,000 farmers in El Salvador adopt improved agricultural and land-management practices. By growing his own fodder, Osorio estimates he has cut his livestock feed costs by 70%. For farmers in the program, production costs have fallen by half and chemical fertilizer purchases by 70%.
Diversification also helps restore the land on which future harvests depend.
According to FAO, more than 1.6 billion hectares worldwide have been degraded by unsustainable land use and management, with over 60% of that degradation occurring on agricultural land. Restoring soils, planting trees and improving land management help restore damaged farmland and protect crops from drought and heavy rain. Healthier soils hold more moisture, resist erosion and help farmers spend less on fertilizer, while restored vegetation supports biodiversity and stores carbon.
A 2026 study reviewing 184 previous meta-analyses found that agricultural diversification improves long-term profitability, biodiversity, soil quality and carbon storage, with no statistically significant overall change in crop yields. The findings challenge the assumption that farmers must sacrifice yields or profits to diversify.
In Ethiopia, FAO and UNDP’s SCALA program is working with farming communities to identify ways to reduce their dependence on rain-fed agriculture. In the Harari region, priorities include drought-tolerant crops, high value irrigated vegetables, goats and small-scale poultry farming, offering farmers more ways to earn a living even when rainfall fails.
A 2025 investment analysis of SCALA interventions across three Ethiopian regions projects a 40% increase in household incomes, with estimated benefits worth about US$2.80 for every dollar invested. These are projections, but they provide a concrete economic case for diversified farming.
Yet climate finance for agriculture is falling behind countries’ stated needs. FAO’s latest global analysis of national climate commitments finds that countries report 70% higher climate finance needs for agrifood systems than in the previous round. Meanwhile, climate-related development finance to the sector declined by 10% in 2024, according to FAO’s latest update on Climate-related development finance to agrifood systems.
Agriculture has always been a difficult sector for investors. Harvests depend on weather, prices fluctuate and small farmers often lack the collateral to secure loans. Climate change adds further uncertainty. Yet financing farming systems without addressing their exposure to drought, flooding and soil degradation carries risks of its own.
Diversification and land restoration change that calculation. Multiple sources of income, healthier productive land and lower input costs give farmers a better chance of maintaining their livelihoods through difficult seasons and repaying loans. For governments and lenders, fewer farm failures also mean fewer financial losses.
But farmers need capital to make these changes. Restoring land takes time, trees take years to mature and new crops require seeds, technical advice and access to markets. Public climate finance should help farmers meet those initial costs while reducing the risks that discourage private investors.
At COP31, which kicks off on Monday in Antalya, Turkey, governments should prioritize diversified farming and land restoration in their climate plans and help farmers finance the transition. Productivity remains essential, but a record harvest means little if the next drought wipes out a farmer’s livelihood. Those changes protect future harvests and make agriculture a sounder investment in a more volatile climate.
Featured image: Wikimedia Commons.
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About the author: Kaveh Zahedi is Assistant Director-General and Director of the Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). He leads FAO’s work on climate change and biodiversity, including engagement with international environmental conventions and climate finance institutions. Previously, he held senior leadership positions at the UN Environment Programme and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
