EU Agrees on Weakened Emissions Reduction Target Ahead of COP30

EU climate ministers approved a compromise to cut emissions 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels, albeit with some flexibilities that green groups have called “disappointing”.

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The European Union managed to strike a last-minute deal for a 2040 emissions reduction target amid mounting pressure to submit a plan ahead of next week’s COP30 climate summit.

EU climate ministers compromised on a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 from 1990 levels – the bare minimum recommended by scientists for mitigating climate risks and to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The bloc had already pledged to cut net emissions by 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels and to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century.

But green groups have called the deal, which concludes more than 20 months of negotiations, a “disappointment”. Indeed, while the 90% reduction remains, only 85% of these reductions will be domestic. For the remaining 5%, the EU will rely on international offsets.

“This would divert resources away from domestic decarbonisation and undermine the integrity of the EU’s transition,” Climate Action Network Europe, an NGO coalition with 200 member organizations, said in a statement.

Countries including France and Portugal had pushed for the 5% carbon credits flexibility, while Poland, Italy and others sought 10%, Bloomberg reported. This is despite scientists a report by European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change noting earlier this year that offsets should not be used to achieve domestic target.

The text approved on Wednesday also mentions a potential review of the overall 2040 target if land carbon sinks – like forests and peatlands – underperform. In other words, it allows for the overarching climate target to be adjusted in case carbon sequestration from these natural ecosystems does not meet expectations.

According to WWF EU, this gives member states “a get-out-of-jail free card to lower the target if they don’t do enough to protect their natural carbon sinks.”

“Member States are claiming they have agreed on a 90% target, but that’s just sleight of hand. Once you strip off the offsets and the potential emergency break for carbon sinks, the real figure will be lower than 85%. The EU should lead by example, not by loophole,” said Michael Sicaud-Clyet, Climate Policy Officer at WWF EU. 

Off Track

Virtually every country on Earth adopted a global warming target a decade ago by signing the Paris Agreement, which set out a framework for limiting global warming to below 1.5C or “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Beyond this limit, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet.

So far, they have not been able to keep to that promise. Current global emissions pledges putting the world on track for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1C over the course of this century.

Less than 70 countries have submitted their updated climate plans for 2035 under the Paris Agreement, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, ahead of COP30. Collectively, they represent just one-third of global emissions, and put the world on track to slash emissions by 17% below 2019 levels by 2035, the UN said last week.

Scientists say that staying within a 1.5C warming limit will require a reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, peaking no later than 2025.